How the Israel-Hamas war can affect South Africa

Israel continues to increase its attacks and is believed to be preparing a ground invasion in Palestine.

This comes even after the global community has called for a ceasefire.

At the time of publishing, the death toll from the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip since October 7 stood at 6,546 citizens, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. This includes 2,704 children, 1,584 women, and 364 elderly people. In addition, 17,439 citizens were injured.

South African individuals have been very vocal about whom they support, while companies remain mum or neutral.

There have been a number of protests in solidarity with Palestine, and ANC first deputy secretary-general, Nomvula Mokonyane has recently called for the closure of the Israeli embassy in South Africa.

While the war takes place in the Middle East, it would be a mistake to think that it will not affect South Africa.

IOL spoke to Professor Emeritus at Unisa of International Law André Thomashausen on his insights on the matter. Thomashausen was also a keynote speaker on “the legal status of Jerusalem” at the Arab League International Conference on Jerusalem 2012.

When asked how the escalating war will impact South Africa and Africa, Thomashausen explained how debt and South Africa’s relationship to Israel are inextricably linked.

“South Africa is overborrowed, with 82% of its GDP being money obtained as credit. Twenty-one cents of every rand collected in revenue goes to servicing this debt at an annual cost of R334 billion per year. Most of the credit that South Africa consumes comes from banks in the Western economies that lend unwavering support to Israel,” said Thomashausen.

Thomashauen added: “A self-indulgent or emotional foreign policy that demonstrates hostility towards Israel will pose a greater risk to South Africa’s financial and economic stability than its often criticised stance of neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Thomashausen also noted that a “significant number” of critical skills in science, medical services, financial and legal services, hospitality, and advanced engineering and manufacturing are owned by families that came to South Africa as refugees from the Holocaust in Europe.

“A flight of Jewish people to form a radicalised pro-Hamas South Africa would bring key industries to a halt,” he added.

Thomashausen noted that there are no immediate consequences for South Africa as a result of the ongoing war due to South Africa and other countries wanting a cessation of the violence. “All major world powers and all the BRICS nations, except Iran, are strongly committed to a de-escalation of the Gaza conflict”.

He did note that there will be consequences if South Africa makes a move that hurts Israeli ties.

“Should South Africa decide to suddenly expel the Ambassador of Israel, as demanded by the EFF, for instance, the already much-feared discontinuation of the Agoa preferential trade arrangements by the USA could be the consequence.“

Thomashausen said the international community and the United Nations have for “many decades failed to find acceptable solutions” for the plight of the Palestinian people.

“Generations in Palestine have been condemned to an existence as refugees or homeless people. This offends the teachings of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism, alike.”

Many might not realise that there is a historical event that is often overlooked but significantly influences this war, and that is the Cold War.

“The Cold War, until 1990, played a particularly destructive role by instrumentalising Palestinian resistance into a force of aggression against the West, with the Soviet Union funding and encouraging anti-Western extremism and terrorism among the Palestinian political movements. This in turn radicalised Israeli security concerns and militarised Israel, which became the closest ally of the USA.”

In terms of immediate and long-term consequences for both Israeli and Palestinian communities, Thomashausen says confidence-building measures must be identified, discussed, and agreed upon.

“The 1970s Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) is a good example to follow, as it was able to lay the groundwork for the ‘détente’ process that eventually ended the cold war.“

In a bid to find potential paths to resolution or de-escalation, Thomashausen stated that world leaders need to stop their “opportunism“ as well as acknowledge that they will equally continue to exist.

“The equal right to development and progress of both the Israeli and Palestinian people must be recognised. From that point onwards, concrete development plans must be identified and their implementation secured with the support of the powerful and wealthy nations in the region.”

IOL

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 06:45:23 GMTYasmine Jacobs

Share this post